Introduction
I was 26 years old, but with the toothy grin on my face, you could have sworn I was just 6. My first ever long-haul flight from Johannesburg to Barcelona was a reminder that glee was not an emotion reserved only for preschoolers.
Like any aviation enthusiast in their right mind, I purposefully chose the window seat to have an uninterrupted view of a wing the length of four and a half buses, and marvel at flaps and ailerons fulfilling their purpose during take-off and climb! The wonder in my eyes was two-fold. One, up until then, the most intimate interaction I had ever had with the gorgeous A380 was through an engineering drawing, calculating the required thrust and the necessary lift to get her off the ground (yes – HER).
Two, little old me, a black girl from a small town who depended on a scholarship to get a decent education was flying in Business Class! Considering that economy alone would have been an absolute treat, this was equivalent to winning the lottery! But why? Is this not just another form a transportation? Only faster and maybe requiring a lot more faith in the pilot to get you there safely?
Aviation as a luxury
In Africa, some aspiring passengers would have to spend between 1 to 4 monthly paychecks to afford an air ticket
In the United States, the average person takes their first flight by the age of 12. Now, similar data doesn’t exist for any African country, yet alone the entire continent. But I would bet extra legroom that the average age is much older for us. So if you told me that Aviation was just a luxury that Africa couldn’t afford, I would nod vigorously and give you data to help prove your point.
In Africa, some aspiring passengers would have to spend between 1 to 4 monthly paychecks to afford an air ticket. Couple that with fact that Africa has some of the highest unemployment rates in the world (e.g., Eswatini at 34.4%), one would be justified to say Africa is better off investing its efforts elsewhere.
Figure 1 – Average number of working days per average citizen to afford an air ticket based on IATA aviation country profiles
Aviation as a lifeline
If African Aviation were a country, it would have the 13th largest GDP on the continent with a contribution of US$75bn, a population of 8.1 million people, and a 0% unemployment rate
However, taking a moment to look at the situation from 30 000 feet, a far more inspiring and encouraging perspective emerges from what seems to be a dark cloud over the industry.
Based on 2023 stats from the IATA, if African Aviation were a country, it would have the 13th largest GDP on the continent with a contribution of US$75b, a population of 8.1 million people, and a 0% unemployment rate. ~4.4% of those jobs would be directly from the aviation industry, and the rest from other industries.
Coming back to a reality where Africa only has 54 countries and not 55, country profiles created by the IATA show that at a national level, aviation has contributed between 0.7% to 7.9% of national GDP. What is fascinating is that for some nations such as South Africa and Nigeria, more than half of that GDP contribution is from economic activities that aren’t directly related to aviation, only enabled by it!
This implies that aviation has multiplier effects that stretch far beyond just the simple movements of people and goods.
Figure 2 – Slide 1: National GDP for top African countries based on Statista 2025 values; Slide 2: Aviation industry contribution to national GDP for 5 African countries based on IATA country profiles
Now it doesn’t take a mind-reader to know what a savvy Aviation Aficionado such as yourself is wondering. How can one plane ticket do so much?! In another article titled “What‘s more important, demand or network? Yes”, we explore at a high-level, using an easy to follow framework, how aviation can have so much impact. It all boils down to aviation being a multiplier for the economy due to its ability to enable freer and faster movement of goods and people, contributing to strengthened supply chains, and higher feasibility of multi-national companies. Essentially, aviation is less a mere luxury and more Africa’s lifeline.
Unfortunately, in later articles we will discover that the African aviation industry has some deep-seated issues that will make democratizing aviation as challenging as landing a wide body jet in the middle of the ocean during a storm.
But my fellow enthusiasts, I urge you, nay, I implore you to consider the value at stake. By 2043, Africa is estimated to have 345 million ready, willing and able flight passengers; that is a fifth of Africa’s population today!
Final thoughts
Million air transport passengers expected in Africa by 2043
Billion USD in GDP contribution to Africa by 2044
Million jobs supported by the African aviation industry by 2044
If African Aviation positions itself well and addresses crucial frictions currently standing in the way of an industry firing on all cylinders, the industry is expected to contribute US$190bn to the continent’s GDP and support 16 million jobs by 2044, double the employment today! But if it doesn’t succeed in this, the aviation industries of other regions will capitalize on what could have been value for Africa.
If we want to see success, the inch-worm pace the continent is known for will not cut it. What we need is full throttle on all engines to reach the speeds required for take-off towards an aviation industry with reasonable access for all.
Will it be a challenging journey? Yes. But it is clearly a journey worth taking, and a destination best reached together!
